The Numbers Behind a Profitable Airbnb in Virginia

Short-term rentals are one of the most misunderstood corners of real estate. The success stories make it look easy. The horror stories make it look impossible. The truth is in the underwriting — and after operating two successful Airbnbs in Virginia, we have a clear sense of which deals work and which look great on a spreadsheet but bleed in real life.

Start with the right property in the right place

The most important decision is made before you ever list. The property has to fit a real guest profile: business travelers near a hospital or convention corridor, leisure travelers near a waterfront or wine country, family travelers near a theme park or college. If you cannot describe your ideal guest in one sentence, the underwriting will not save you.

Local regulation matters just as much. Some Virginia jurisdictions welcome short-term rentals. Others restrict them sharply. We confirm zoning, HOA rules, and any required permits before we make an offer — every time.

Underwriting the income side

Forget the AirDNA dashboard number. Build your revenue estimate from three inputs:

• Realistic average daily rate (ADR) based on comparable listings that have been live for at least a year
• Conservative occupancy assumption — 60% to 70% is a reasonable baseline for a well-run property in a healthy market
• A seasonality curve that reflects the actual market, not an annualized average

Multiply ADR by occupied nights by 365 to get gross revenue. Then subtract platform fees (typically 3% on the host side), cleaning revenue that flows through to your cleaner, and any local lodging taxes.

Underwriting the expense side

The expense lines that quietly kill STR deals:

• Utilities. All-in, on you, including internet that actually works for remote workers
• Cleaning. Per turnover, often higher than a long-term rental's monthly maintenance
• Consumables. Coffee, paper goods, soap, batteries — small individually, real annually
• Maintenance reserve. STRs experience faster wear than long-term rentals. Reserve aggressively
• Furniture replacement. Plan on refreshing every 5 to 7 years
• Property management or co-host fees. Typically 15% to 25% of gross if you are not self-managing
• Insurance. Standard landlord policies do not cover STR use — get the right product
• Lodging tax and licensing. Varies by jurisdiction

The metrics that matter

Two numbers tell us whether a deal is worth doing:

1. RevPAN — revenue per available night. ADR times occupancy. This is the cleanest comparison across properties.
2. Cash-on-cash return after a fully loaded expense model. If we cannot see a path to a clear double-digit return in year two, with realistic assumptions, we pass.

What separates a hobby from a business

Systems. Pricing tools that adjust nightly, a reliable cleaning team, automated guest communication, a maintenance hotline, monthly financial reviews, and a willingness to fire underperforming listings. The investors who treat STRs like a business outperform the ones who treat it like a side project — every single time.

How we help

We consult with investors on STR acquisitions, underwriting, setup, and operating systems across Virginia. If you are evaluating your first short-term rental or trying to figure out why an existing one is not hitting its numbers, we are happy to take a look.